Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the Federal Reserve's mouthpiece, said in a post on social media that the sharp decline in portfolio management services in the producer price index (PPI) in April is expected to lead to another mild core PCE inflation reading. Core PCE growth is expected to be around 0.13% in April. However, the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE is expected to remain at around 2.6% due to the possible upward revision of March data.
美联储传声筒之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos在社交媒体上发文表示,根据将CPI和PPI映射到PCE的预测模型,4月生产者价格指数(PPI)中投资组合管理服务的大幅下降,预计将带来又一次温和的核心PCE通胀读数。预计4月核心PCE增长约为0.13%。不过,由于3月数据可能上修,核心PCE的同比增速或将维持在2.6%左右。
"Federal Reserve Messenger" Nick Timiraos pointed out that in the wait-and-see mode, the Federal Reserve has quietly started a strategic shift. Click to view...
“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos指出,观望模式下,美联储已悄然开启战略转向。点击查看...
Nick Timiraos said the Fed's January meeting notes showed officials discussed whether to slow or pause the reduction of its nearly $6.80 trillion portfolio at last month's meeting as they faced complications over the coming months from raising the federal debt ceiling, a development that could lead to large swings in the Fed's liabilities.
"Federal Reserve Speaker" Nick Timiraos: Due to the weak performance of the PPI components that make up the PCE index (financial and medical services sub-items) in January, the monthly rate of the core PCE index in the United States in January is expected to be much lower than the sharp increase in the monthly rate of CPI yesterday. A month-on-month increase of 0.27% in the core PCE in January would reduce the annual rate of the core PCE from 2.8% to 2.6%.
"Fed Messenger" Nick Timiraos: The strong inflation data in January makes the case for the Federal Reserve to further "readjust" the path of interest rate cuts before the middle of the year untenable. (Jin Ten)
“美联储传声筒”NickTimiraos:1月份的通胀数据表现强劲,这使得美联储在年中之前进一步“重新调整”降息路径的理由站不住脚。(金十)
The Fed has hit the pause button on interest rate cuts, entering a new wait-and-see phase as it tries to decide whether to cut rates from their recent two-decade highs and by how much, according to Nick Timiraos. Wednesday's decision to keep rates on hold follows three consecutive rate cuts from September, when rates were about 5.3 per cent. Officials made only minor changes to their policy statement at the end of the two-day meeting, which indicated that inflation remained slightly above target...
“美联储传声筒”NickTimiraos表示,美联储按下了降息暂停键,进入了一个新的观望阶段,它正试图决定是否将利率从最近的二十年高点下调以及下调多少。在周三决定维持利率不变之前,美联储已从9月开始连续三次降息,当时的利率约为5.3%。官员们在为期两天的会议结束时发表的政策声明只做了微小的改动。声明表明,在通胀率仍略高于目标、劳动力市场状...
As Mr. Trump considers using tariffs more boldly, a key question looms over the Fed: the extent to which any price increases will spur public interest in higher inflation, writes Nick Timiraos, the Fed's mouthpiece.
"Fed Speaker" Nick Timiraos: With December CPI and PPI data, forecasters expect December core PCE to rise 0.17% (nearly 2% annualized), which will keep core PCE at 2.8% annualized and reduce the 6-month and 3-month annualized values to 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively. (Jin Ten)